🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bahia at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Fortaleza EC make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Thursday 20 November 2025 at 21:00 UTC.

Form

Bahia (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Bahia's home record at Arena Fonte Nova: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.

Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bahia, 1.30 for Fortaleza EC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Bahia 3W, Fortaleza EC 2W, 2D.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 55% versus Fortaleza EC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 54% | Fortaleza EC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 2.03 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.180 / defence 0.776 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.112 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.002. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bahia's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Bahia games / 71 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bahia 64% | Draw 20% | Fortaleza EC 15%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Fortaleza EC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Fortaleza EC 90% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights