🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Cruzeiro at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Cruzeiro encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Cruzeiro travel to Estadio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Thursday 20 November 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Juventude's home record at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Across all Serie A games this season, Cruzeiro have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Cruzeiro away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cruzeiro — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Cruzeiro have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Juventude's 0 victories.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 0–4 with Cruzeiro winning.

It is worth noting that Cruzeiro have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Juventude trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Cruzeiro trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 56% versus Cruzeiro 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 49% | Cruzeiro 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.61 xG and Cruzeiro 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.765 / defence 1.136 | Cruzeiro attack 0.937 / defence 0.569. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 0.989. Juventude's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 0.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cruzeiro's defence strength of 0.569 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 71 Juventude games / 71 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juventude 21% | Draw 33% | Cruzeiro 46%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Cruzeiro 2.17. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Juventude's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 40% | Cruzeiro 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights