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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bahia and Fluminense share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 19, as Bahia and Fluminense drew 3-3 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.60 xG and Fluminense 0.86 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fluminense outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.17 / defence 0.86 against Fluminense attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 54% | Draw 26% | Fluminense 20%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Fluminense's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bahia 1.52 PPG, Fluminense 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights