Bahia 3-3 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Fluminense meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 August 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fluminense have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bahia. A 0.70 PPG lead over Fluminense (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Bahia, 3 for Fluminense and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Fluminense 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Fluminense 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.60 xG and Fluminense 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.172 / defence 0.857 | Fluminense attack 1.003 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 0.998. Data: 54 Bahia games / 54 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 54% | Draw 26% | Fluminense 20%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Fluminense 5.00. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 60% | Fluminense 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 54% | Draw 26% | Fluminense 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Bahia 1.60 / Fluminense 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.172 / def 0.857 | Fluminense attack 1.003 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.280 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Bahia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Fluminense xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Fluminense kick off?
Bahia vs Fluminense kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Bahia 3 - 3 Fluminense.
Where is Bahia vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Fluminense part of?
Bahia vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 54% chance of winning, Fluminense a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bahia and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
Record (6 meetings): Bahia 3W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 3W.
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in?
Bahia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.17) and Fluminense's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.00x) against Bahia's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.84
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.46
0.86
Fluminense xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
4%
25.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bahia and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Bahia and 0.86 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 23W 13D 18L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense's form line: 19W 12D 23L from 54 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Bahia against 1.28 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.07 PPG from 27 outings (17W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 7W 3D 17L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.94 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Fluminense away?
Bahia's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.07 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Bahia or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fluminense in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bahia
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 44%, Fluminense 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Bahia and 26% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fluminense in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bahia's recent matches and 33% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bahia's recent games and 26% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Fluminense tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Fluminense share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 19, as Bahia and Fluminense drew 3-3 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.60 xG and Fluminense 0.86 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fluminense outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.17 / defence 0.86 against Fluminense attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 54% | Draw 26% | Fluminense 20%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.52 PPG, Fluminense 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.