🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Ceara 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Ceara 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.54 xG and Ceara 0.95 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ceara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Ceara attack 1.02 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 48% | Draw 32% | Ceara 20%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights