Santos 1-1 Avai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Santos at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Avai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Avai travel to Arena Barueri to take on Santos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santos stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Santos's home record at Arena Barueri: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Avai — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Avai's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Santos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Santos, 1 for Avai and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Avai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Santos in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Avai in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 49% versus Avai 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 46% | Avai 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.98 xG and Avai 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.081 / defence 1.005 | Avai attack 0.532 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.020. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Santos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Santos games / 35 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 72% | Draw 19% | Avai 9%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Avai 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Santos (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Santos 50% | Avai 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Barueri • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 72% | Draw 19% | Avai 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 36% | xG Santos 1.98 / Avai 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.081 / def 1.005 | Avai attack 0.532 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Santos (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Avai xG
36%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Avai kick off?
Santos vs Avai kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Arena Barueri.
What was the final score in Santos vs Avai?
Santos 1 - 1 Avai.
Where is Santos vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Arena Barueri.
What competition is Santos vs Avai part of?
Santos vs Avai is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 72% chance of winning, Avai a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Santos and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Avai?
Record (1 meetings): Santos 0W | Draws 0 | Avai 1W.
What form are Santos and Avai in?
Santos (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Avai (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Santos's attack at 1.08x the league average against Avai's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Avai's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.7%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
72%
1.40
19%
5.18
9%
10.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.7%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Santos xG
Total xG
2.52
0.55
Avai xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
10.87
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
41%
2.41
1%
78.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.7 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Santos and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Santos and 0.55 for Avai, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Avai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santos come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 10D 13L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Avai sit at 0.80 PPG from 35 outings (7W 7D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Santos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Avai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Santos's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Avai have taken 0.35 points per game from 17 outings (1W 3D 13L). That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Santos are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Avai are on 0.83 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Avai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Avai in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 12W 10D 13L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Avai have gone 7W 7D 21L in their last 35 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Avai away?
Santos's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.65 PPG; Avai away: 0.35 PPG.
Have Santos or Avai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Avai in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santos and Avai runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Santos
1
Draws
1
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Santos have won 0, Avai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2022, when Santos 1-1 Avai.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Avai?
Avai have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 53%, Avai 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Santos) and 47% (Avai).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Avai in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Avai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Santos's recent matches and 35% of Avai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Avai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Santos's recent games and 47% of Avai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Avai tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Avai in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santos and Avai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Barueri, Regular Season - 36, as Santos and Avai drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.98 xG and Avai 0.55 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Santos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Avai attack 0.53 / defence 1.40, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 72% | Draw 19% | Avai 9%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 46%, Avai 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Avai's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Santos arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Avai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.