Zulte Waregem 0-4 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Club Brugge KV at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Zulte Waregem welcome Club Brugge KV to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Club Brugge KV stand at 1W 2D 0L from 3 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Club Brugge KV have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zulte Waregem at 1.33 PPG versus Club Brugge KV's 1.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zulte Waregem register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Club Brugge KV in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Club Brugge KV trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 100% and Club Brugge KV 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 67% | Club Brugge KV 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 0.92 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.954 / defence 1.230 | Club Brugge KV attack 0.822 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 0.975 / away 1.497. Data: 3 Zulte Waregem games / 3 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 20% | Draw 32% | Club Brugge KV 48%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Club Brugge KV 2.08. Club Brugge KV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Club Brugge KV as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Zulte Waregem 100% | Club Brugge KV 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 20% | Draw 32% | Club Brugge KV 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Zulte Waregem 0.92 / Club Brugge KV 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.954 / def 1.230 | Club Brugge KV attack 0.822 / def 0.989 | league avg home 0.975 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Club Brugge KV xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 4 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 20% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-W. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.95x the league average against Club Brugge KV's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge KV's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
20%
4.98
32%
3.17
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.43
1.51
Club Brugge KV xG
4.98
20%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
4%
22.62
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.3 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.51 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Club Brugge KV's form line: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 1.33 PPG, Club Brugge KV on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Club Brugge KV in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Club Brugge KV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have Zulte Waregem or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Club Brugge KV have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when Club Brugge KV won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Club Brugge KV specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
5
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 0, Club Brugge KV have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Club Brugge KV 4-3 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Club Brugge KV see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zulte Waregem at 100%, Club Brugge KV at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Zulte Waregem) and 33% (Club Brugge KV).
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Club Brugge KV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Zulte Waregem's games and 67% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 33% of Club Brugge KV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Club Brugge KV run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Zulte Waregem 0-4 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 0.92 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.51 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Club Brugge KV outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.95 / defence 1.23 against Club Brugge KV attack 0.82 / defence 0.99, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 20% | Draw 32% | Club Brugge KV 48%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 67%, Club Brugge KV 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.33 PPG, Club Brugge KV 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge KV win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge KV scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.