Beerschot VA 0-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Standard Liege at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Standard Liege make the trip to Olympisch Stadion to face Beerschot VA in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Beerschot VA (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Standard Liege's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: D W L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.33. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Standard Liege are 1.00 PPG clear of Beerschot VA in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (1.33 vs 0.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Beerschot VA goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Standard Liege goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beerschot VA 33% and Standard Liege 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beerschot VA 67% | Standard Liege 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 0.77 xG and Standard Liege 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.684 / defence 1.234 | Standard Liege attack 0.906 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.534. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Beerschot VA games / 3 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 14% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 57%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 7.14 | Draw 3.45 | Standard Liege 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Standard Liege (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Standard Liege as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Beerschot VA 33% | Standard Liege 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 14% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Beerschot VA 0.77 / Standard Liege 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.684 / def 1.234 | Standard Liege attack 0.906 / def 1.141 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Standard Liege xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege?
Beerschot VA 0 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege part of?
Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 14% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 57% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Beerschot VA and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Standard Liege?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beerschot VA and Standard Liege in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L. Standard Liege (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 0.68x the league average against Standard Liege's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Standard Liege's attack (0.91x) against Beerschot VA's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
14%
7.34
29%
3.45
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.48
1.72
Standard Liege xG
7.34
14%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
2%
40.81
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 14.4 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.72 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Standard Liege's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Standard Liege are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beerschot VA.
Attack vs Defence
Beerschot VA are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liege in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Early Season
Standard Liege
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Standard Liege — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
1
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Standard Liege?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 0, Standard Liege have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Beerschot VA 0-0 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Standard Liege?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Beerschot VA, 100% for Standard Liege — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Beerschot VA and 67% for Standard Liege. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Standard Liege?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Beerschot VA's games and 100% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Beerschot VA's matches and 67% of Standard Liege's.
Do Beerschot VA and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Beerschot VA 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Beerschot VA 0-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 0.77 xG and Standard Liege 1.72 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.68 / defence 1.23 against Standard Liege attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 14% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 57%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 67%, Standard Liege 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Standard Liege's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Standard Liege arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beerschot VA conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liege conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.