Charleroi 1-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 54%, yet in-form Charleroi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: W D D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antwerp have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Charleroi's 1.67 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Antwerp's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 33% versus Antwerp 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 33% | Antwerp 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.05 xG and Antwerp 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.818 / defence 0.966 | Antwerp attack 1.200 / defence 1.509. League average goals — home 0.855 / away 1.625. Antwerp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.509 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Charleroi games / 3 Antwerp games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 18% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 54%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Antwerp 1.85. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (1.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 33% | Antwerp 67%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 18% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Charleroi 1.05 / Antwerp 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.818 / def 0.966 | Antwerp attack 1.200 / def 1.509 | league avg home 0.855 / away 1.625 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Antwerp xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 18% chance of winning, Antwerp a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in?
Charleroi (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-D-D. Antwerp (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.82x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.20x) against Charleroi's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
18%
5.43
27%
3.65
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.94
1.88
Antwerp xG
5.43
18%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
3%
35.70
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.88 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 2D 0L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Antwerp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 2.33 scored and 2.00 conceded. Antwerp's attacking output running into Charleroi's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp in 67%.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Antwerp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Charleroi or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Antwerp in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, Antwerp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 33%, Antwerp 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Charleroi) and 67% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 33% of games; Antwerp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Charleroi's recent matches and 67% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Charleroi's recent games and 67% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and Antwerp finished level at 1-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.05 xG and Antwerp 1.88 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Antwerp attack 1.20 / defence 1.51, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 18% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 54%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 33%, Antwerp 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Antwerp managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.