🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Charleroi 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Charleroi 1-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.61 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Charleroi attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 48%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Charleroi 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.53 PPG, Charleroi 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights