Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Stade Joseph Marien to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Marien: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Union St. Gilloise's favour (2.40 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on paper — 8 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2026, ended 3–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus St. Truiden 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | St. Truiden 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.42 xG and St. Truiden 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.190 / defence 0.709 | St. Truiden attack 1.240 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St. Truiden have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Union St. Gilloise games / 38 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 66% | Draw 18% | St. Truiden 16%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | St. Truiden 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 30% | St. Truiden 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 66% | Draw 18% | St. Truiden 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.42 / St. Truiden 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.190 / def 0.709 | St. Truiden attack 1.240 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.14
St. Truiden xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stade Joseph Marien.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 66% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Record (10 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 8W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.24x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
66%
1.52
18%
5.54
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.57
1.14
St. Truiden xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
9%
11.30
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
1%
69.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.14 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 31W 13D 4L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden's form line: 24W 7D 17L from 48 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.67 PPG from 24 outings (20W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.21 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 10W 4D 10L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.58 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 31W 13D 4L in their last 48 games (2.21 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 24W 7D 17L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or St. Truiden away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.67 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 33%, St. Truiden 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Union St. Gilloise) and 54% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 58% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 54% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.