Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host Lommel United at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
Lommel United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.40 PPG (Zulte Waregem) versus 2.00 (Lommel United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 3 for Lommel United and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lommel United trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 60% and Lommel United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 55% | Lommel United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.52 xG and Lommel United 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.134 / defence 0.832 | Lommel United attack 0.779 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.362. Data: 34 Zulte Waregem games / 5 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 52% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 22%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Lommel United 4.55. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 40% | Lommel United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 52% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.52 / Lommel United 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.134 / def 0.832 | Lommel United attack 0.779 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lommel United xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 52% chance of winning, Lommel United a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Record (6 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 2 | Lommel United 3W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Lommel United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Lommel United's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.86
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.41
0.88
Lommel United xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
5%
21.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 0.88 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 15W 11D 14L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lommel United's form line: 21W 8D 11L from 40 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 1.40 PPG, Lommel United on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (10W 3D 6L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 10W 5D 4L from 19 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.82 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lommel United in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 21W 8D 11L in their last 40 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.74 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Lommel United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 47%, Lommel United 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Zulte Waregem) and 58% (Lommel United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Zulte Waregem's games and 63% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 58% of Lommel United's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Lommel United tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.