Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host Lommel United at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Lommel United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Zulte Waregem) versus 1.50 (Lommel United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 3 for Lommel United and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lommel United trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 54% versus Lommel United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 54% | Lommel United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.90 xG and Lommel United 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.925 / defence 1.156 | Lommel United attack 0.993 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Data: 40 Zulte Waregem games / 10 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 46% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 31%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Lommel United 3.23. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 40% | Lommel United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 46% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.90 / Lommel United 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.925 / def 1.156 | Lommel United attack 0.993 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Lommel United xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 46% chance of winning, Lommel United a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Record (6 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 2 | Lommel United 3W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Lommel United's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
46%
2.16
22%
4.52
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.44
1.54
Lommel United xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
5%
21.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.54 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 16W 11D 19L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 23W 11D 12L from 46 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 11W 7D 5L from 23 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.74 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 23W 11D 12L in their last 46 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.48 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Lommel United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 48%, Lommel United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Zulte Waregem) and 61% (Lommel United).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Lommel United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 61% of Lommel United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 61% of Lommel United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Lommel United tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.