Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Soevereinstadion plays host to Lommel United versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lommel United have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Soevereinstadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Lommel United against 2.00 for Union St. Gilloise. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Union St. Gilloise goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 58% versus Union St. Gilloise 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 58% | Union St. Gilloise 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.06 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.898 / defence 0.826 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.555 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.555 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Lommel United games / 35 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 23% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 54%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 1.85. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 50% | Union St. Gilloise 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 23% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Lommel United 1.06 / Union St. Gilloise 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.898 / def 0.826 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.555 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Soevereinstadion.
Where is Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 23% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise in?
Lommel United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (0.90) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.55x) against Lommel United's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
23%
4.44
23%
4.29
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.84
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
4.44
23%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
26.28
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.78 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lommel United's recent record stands at 22W 10D 11L from 43 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 4L across 43 games — 2.21 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lommel United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 12W 3D 7L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 10W 8D 4L across 22 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union St. Gilloise's season.
Attack vs Defence
Lommel United are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.72 scored and 0.67 conceded. Lommel United's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 11D 4L in their last 43 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Lommel United's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.77 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 49%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 54%, Union St. Gilloise 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lommel United) and 46% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 32%; Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lommel United's recent matches and 54% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lommel United's recent games and 46% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.