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Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over St. Truiden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 2-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.75 xG and St. Truiden 0.82 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. St. Truiden landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.44 / defence 0.69 against St. Truiden attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 15%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 51%, St. Truiden 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

St. Truiden's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights