🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face St. Truiden.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

St. Truiden make the trip to Stade Joseph Marien to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 18:15 UTC.

Form

Union St. Gilloise (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Marien: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.

St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Union St. Gilloise's favour (2.50 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Across 6 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.

The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

St. Truiden — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 43% versus St. Truiden 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 51% | St. Truiden 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.75 xG and St. Truiden 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.435 / defence 0.689 | St. Truiden attack 1.087 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.096. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.435 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.689 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Union St. Gilloise games / 41 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 15%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | St. Truiden 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 30% | St. Truiden 70%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights