Union St. Gilloise 2-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Stade Joseph Mariën to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Union St. Gilloise's favour (2.60 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, St. Truiden in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 2W, St. Truiden 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 4–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 68% versus St. Truiden 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | St. Truiden 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.26 xG and St. Truiden 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.230 / defence 0.855 | St. Truiden attack 1.039 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.205. Data: 54 Union St. Gilloise games / 54 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 23% | St. Truiden 15%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | St. Truiden 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 60% | St. Truiden 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 23% | St. Truiden 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.26 / St. Truiden 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.230 / def 0.855 | St. Truiden attack 1.039 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.07
St. Truiden xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 62% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Record (3 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 2W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.04x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
62%
1.60
23%
4.37
15%
6.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.33
1.07
St. Truiden xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
6.76
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
10%
9.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
2%
65.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.07 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.24 PPG on a 37W 10D 7L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden's form line: 17W 18D 19L from 54 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.22 PPG from 27 outings (19W 3D 5L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 7W 11D 9L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.11 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 37W 10D 7L in their last 54 games (2.24 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 17W 18D 19L in their last 54 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or St. Truiden away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.22 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, St. Truiden have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
St. Truiden see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 59%, St. Truiden 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Union St. Gilloise) and 44% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; St. Truiden in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 52% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 44% of St. Truiden's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out St. Truiden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.26 xG and St. Truiden 1.07 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.23 / defence 0.85 against St. Truiden attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 23% | St. Truiden 15%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, St. Truiden 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.