Gent 0-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gent and St. Truiden meet at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Gent (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 4W 2D 4L at Planet Group Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
St. Truiden have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
St. Truiden's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Gent against 1.20 for St. Truiden. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gent have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, St. Truiden in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Gent, 3 for St. Truiden and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gent half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 52% versus St. Truiden 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 54% | St. Truiden 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.36 xG and St. Truiden 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.155 / defence 0.945 | St. Truiden attack 1.140 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Gent games / 60 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 36% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 39%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | St. Truiden 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gent 60% | St. Truiden 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 33 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 36% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Gent 1.36 / St. Truiden 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.155 / def 0.945 | St. Truiden attack 1.140 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.42
St. Truiden xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs St. Truiden kick off?
Gent vs St. Truiden kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Gent 0 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Gent vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs St. Truiden part of?
Gent vs St. Truiden is a Championship Group - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 36% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gent and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and St. Truiden?
Record (8 meetings): Gent 3W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 3W.
What form are Gent and St. Truiden in?
Gent (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.16) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.14x) against Gent's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
36%
2.79
25%
3.94
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Gent xG
Total xG
2.78
1.42
St. Truiden xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gent and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Gent and 1.42 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gent's recent record stands at 23W 19D 26L from 68 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 26L across 68 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Gent against 1.44 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gent have managed 14W 7D 13L from 34 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 11W 6D 17L across 34 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gent are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.44 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 65%.
Last 68 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 23W 19D 26L in their last 68 games (1.29 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 28W 14D 26L in their last 68 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or St. Truiden away?
Gent's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.44 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gent
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gent and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 50%, St. Truiden 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gent) and 59% (St. Truiden).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gent's games and 65% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gent's recent games and 59% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gent's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Planet Group Arena, Championship Group - 33, as Gent and St. Truiden drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.36 xG and St. Truiden 1.42 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gent fell 1.4 short of their projected output. St. Truiden landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against St. Truiden attack 1.14 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 36% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 39%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 54%, St. Truiden 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.29 PPG, St. Truiden 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.