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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 47%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

SK Beveren host Union St. Gilloise at Freethiel Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

SK Beveren — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. SK Beveren haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Freethiel Stadion this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Union St. Gilloise haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Union St. Gilloise's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

SK Beveren carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 2.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Trading Patterns

SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 56% versus Union St. Gilloise 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 62% | Union St. Gilloise 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.06 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.979 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.323. Data: 0 SK Beveren games / 30 Union St. Gilloise games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: SK Beveren 27% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 47%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Union St. Gilloise 2.13. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 40% | Union St. Gilloise 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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