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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Genk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 2-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.82 xG and Genk 0.86 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.23 / defence 0.61 against Genk attack 1.09 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 60% | Draw 23% | Genk 17%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 43%, Genk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Genk's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.09 PPG, Genk 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights