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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Genk 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 1-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.64 xG and Genk 1.11 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.19 / defence 0.87 against Genk attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 29% | Genk 24%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 59%, Genk 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Genk's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.04 PPG, Genk 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights