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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Genk encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Championship Round - 7 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Genk — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Genk have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Union St. Gilloise, 3 for Genk and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Genk in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 57% versus Genk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 59% | Genk 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.64 xG and Genk 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.189 / defence 0.869 | Genk attack 1.148 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Data: 60 Union St. Gilloise games / 60 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 29% | Genk 24%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Genk 4.17. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Genk 70% BTTS from recent games.

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