Union St. Gilloise 4-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Dender encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dender make the trip to Stade Joseph Mariën to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Joseph Mariën this season.
Dender have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dender have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Dender's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union St. Gilloise lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Dender — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 61% versus Dender 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 58% | Dender 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.14 xG and Dender 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.029 / defence 0.887 | Dender attack 0.990 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.144. Dender bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Union St. Gilloise games / 27 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Dender 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Dender 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.14 / Dender 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.029 / def 0.887 | Dender attack 0.990 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Dender xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Dender kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Dender kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Union St. Gilloise 4 - 1 Dender.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Dender is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 61% chance of winning, Dender a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
Record (1 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 0W | Draws 1 | Dender 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Dender in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Dender (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (1.03) and Dender's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dender's attack (0.99x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.00
14%
7.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.15
1.00
Dender xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
7.04
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
59.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.00 for Dender, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 31W 18D 8L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dender's form line: 23W 17D 17L from 57 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.14 PPG from 28 outings (18W 6D 4L).
On the road, Dender have gone 12W 7D 9L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.51 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Dender in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 31W 18D 8L in their last 57 games (1.95 PPG), while Dender have gone 23W 17D 17L in their last 57 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Dender away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.14 PPG; Dender away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dender in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-1 on 1 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
From 4 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Dender have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 61%, Dender 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Union St. Gilloise and 61% for Dender. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 57% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 61% of Dender's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Dender tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dender in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Dender 4-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.14 xG and Dender 1.00 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Dender attack 0.99 / defence 1.43, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 58%, Dender 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dender's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.