Charleroi 1-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 40%, yet in-form Genk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Genk's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Genk have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Genk are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Genk have the stronger record — 3 wins to Charleroi's 0, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended Charleroi 0–3 Genk — a Genk win.
Genk have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Genk — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus Genk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Genk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.49 xG and Genk 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.007 / defence 0.872 | Genk attack 1.223 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.152. Genk have an above-average attack rating of 1.223, which lifts their away xG to 1.23. Data: built from Charleroi's last 57 games and Genk's last 57.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 31% | Genk 29%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.47 | Draw 3.23 | Genk 3.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genk (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | Genk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 31% | Genk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Charleroi 1.49 / Genk 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.007 / def 0.872 | Genk attack 1.223 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Genk xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Genk FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Genk.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of winning, Genk a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.01) and Genk's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.22x) against Charleroi's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 57 games and Genk's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
40%
2.47
31%
3.23
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.71
1.23
Genk xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.23 for Genk, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 22W 15D 26L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 33W 14D 16L from 63 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 31 home games (14W 8D 9L).
On the road, Genk have gone 12W 7D 12L from their last 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.65 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Genk
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Genk have gone 33W 14D 16L in their last 63 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Charleroi's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.61 PPG; Genk away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Genk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won Genk 4-1 Charleroi on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 55%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charleroi) and 58% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Genk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Charleroi's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charleroi's recent games and 58% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Charleroi's recent matches and 71% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Genk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 28, as Charleroi and Genk drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.49 xG and Genk 1.23 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Genk attack 1.22 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 31% | Genk 29%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Genk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.