Anderlecht 0-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 6W 1D 3L at Lotto Park — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Anderlecht 1.80 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Anderlecht, 0 for Union St. Gilloise and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 56% versus Union St. Gilloise 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 56% | Union St. Gilloise 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.42 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.293 / defence 1.006 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.263 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.149. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Anderlecht games / 56 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 34% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 36%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Union St. Gilloise 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 30% | Union St. Gilloise 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 34% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Anderlecht 1.42 / Union St. Gilloise 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.293 / def 1.006 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.263 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Union St. Gilloise xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Anderlecht 0 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 34% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): Anderlecht 0W | Draws 2 | Union St. Gilloise 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.29x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.36
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.88
1.46
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.46 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 35W 17D 14L from 66 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 37W 19D 10L across 66 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Anderlecht on 1.85 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 22W 6D 5L from 33 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 16W 12D 5L across 33 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.80 scored and 0.98 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's attacking output running into Anderlecht's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Last 66 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 35W 17D 14L in their last 66 games (1.85 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 37W 19D 10L in their last 66 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.18 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Anderlecht
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 52%, Union St. Gilloise 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Anderlecht) and 52% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 58% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Anderlecht's matches and 52% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 0-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.42 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.46 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.29 / defence 1.01 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.26 / defence 0.75, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 34% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 36%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 56%, Union St. Gilloise 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.85 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.