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Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 3-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.91 xG and Charleroi 0.79 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.40 / defence 0.64 against Charleroi attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 13%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 50%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Charleroi's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights