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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Charleroi.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Charleroi to Stade Joseph Marien. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Marien this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.

Charleroi — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Charleroi's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Union St. Gilloise have dominated this rivalry, winning 8 of 8 past contests while Charleroi have managed just 0 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.

The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

Charleroi in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 42% versus Charleroi 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 50% | Charleroi 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.91 xG and Charleroi 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.399 / defence 0.644 | Charleroi attack 1.099 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.110. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.644 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Union St. Gilloise games / 40 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 13%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 20% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.

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