Union St. Gilloise 4-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Union St. Gilloise face AS Eupen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AS Eupen make the trip to Stade Joseph Mariën to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Union St. Gilloise at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Eupen's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AS Eupen's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of AS Eupen's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with AS Eupen managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2023, ended Union St. Gilloise 2–1 AS Eupen — a Union St. Gilloise win.
The head-to-head data gives Union St. Gilloise an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Union St. Gilloise half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AS Eupen half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 66% and AS Eupen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 66% | AS Eupen 64%). Note also that AS Eupen surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Union St. Gilloise recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.25 xG and AS Eupen 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.298 / defence 0.966 | AS Eupen attack 0.951 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.337. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack rating of 1.298 — their 2.25 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 44 games and AS Eupen's last 44.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.70 | Draw 4.41 | AS Eupen 5.41. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.25 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and AS Eupen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 60% (last 10 home games) | AS Eupen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.25 / AS Eupen 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.298 / def 0.966 | AS Eupen attack 0.951 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AS Eupen xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Union St. Gilloise 4 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 59% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.30x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (0.95x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 44 games and AS Eupen's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.41
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.47
1.23
AS Eupen xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
11%
9.44
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
2%
51.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.23 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 44 games, going 29W 8D 7L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, AS Eupen sit at 0.86 PPG from 44 outings (10W 8D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 14W 3D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Eupen have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 22 away games (5W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; AS Eupen in 61%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs AS Eupen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 29W 8D 7L in their last 44 games (2.16 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 10W 8D 26L in their last 44 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or AS Eupen away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.05 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 23 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 4-1 AS Eupen on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, AS Eupen have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 December 2023: AS Eupen 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 59%, AS Eupen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Union St. Gilloise and 59% for AS Eupen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AS Eupen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 54% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 59% of AS Eupen's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 68% of AS Eupen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat AS Eupen 4-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.25 xG and AS Eupen 1.23 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.30 / defence 0.97 against AS Eupen attack 0.95 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 66%, AS Eupen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
AS Eupen's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.