Antwerp 4-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Antwerp at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees AS Eupen travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 October 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Antwerp have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bosuilstadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Antwerp are significantly better at Bosuilstadion than their overall form suggests.
AS Eupen — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Antwerp are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Antwerp hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for AS Eupen, with 0 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with Antwerp winning.
The historical record gives Antwerp a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
AS Eupen trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 33% versus AS Eupen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 42% | AS Eupen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.38 xG and AS Eupen 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.964 / defence 0.591 | AS Eupen attack 0.927 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.306. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.591 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Antwerp games / 43 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 51% | Draw 32% | AS Eupen 18%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | AS Eupen 5.56. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 40% | AS Eupen 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 51% | Draw 32% | AS Eupen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Antwerp 1.38 / AS Eupen 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.964 / def 0.591 | AS Eupen attack 0.927 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.71
AS Eupen xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs AS Eupen kick off?
Antwerp vs AS Eupen kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Antwerp 4 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is Antwerp vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs AS Eupen part of?
Antwerp vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 51% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Antwerp and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and AS Eupen?
Record (4 meetings): Antwerp 4W | Draws 0 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Antwerp and AS Eupen in?
Antwerp (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (0.96) and AS Eupen's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
51%
1.97
32%
3.15
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.09
0.71
AS Eupen xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
4%
22.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Antwerp and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.71 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 22W 13D 8L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen's form line: 10W 8D 25L from 43 games, 0.88 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Antwerp are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Eupen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 2.24 PPG from 21 outings (14W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Antwerp are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 5W 3D 13L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.21 scored and 2.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen in 60%.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 22W 13D 8L in their last 43 games (1.84 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 10W 8D 25L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or AS Eupen away?
Antwerp's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.24 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Antwerp or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2023, when Antwerp won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Antwerp
0
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, AS Eupen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when AS Eupen 1-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and AS Eupen?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 33%, AS Eupen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Antwerp) and 57% (AS Eupen).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; AS Eupen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Antwerp's recent matches and 52% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Antwerp's recent games and 57% of AS Eupen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat AS Eupen 4-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.38 xG and AS Eupen 0.71 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.96 / defence 0.59 against AS Eupen attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 51% | Draw 32% | AS Eupen 18%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 42%, AS Eupen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Eupen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.