AS Eupen 2-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to Kehrwegstadion to take on AS Eupen in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AS Eupen have gone 3W 0D 7L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Eupen at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Charleroi stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Eupen 0.90 PPG, Charleroi 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Charleroi have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for AS Eupen.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2023, ended AS Eupen 1–2 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Charleroi have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Charleroi trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 61% and Charleroi 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 64% | Charleroi 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.64 xG and Charleroi 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.924 / defence 1.483 | Charleroi attack 0.903 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.291. AS Eupen's defence rating of 1.483 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charleroi's projected output up. Data: built from AS Eupen's last 45 games and Charleroi's last 44.
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 36% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 39%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.81 | Draw 3.96 | Charleroi 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Charleroi 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AS Eupen's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Eupen 80% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 12 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 36% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG AS Eupen 1.64 / Charleroi 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.924 / def 1.483 | Charleroi attack 0.903 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Charleroi xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does AS Eupen vs Charleroi kick off?
AS Eupen vs Charleroi kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
AS Eupen 2 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is AS Eupen vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Charleroi part of?
AS Eupen vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 12) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 36% chance of winning, Charleroi a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both AS Eupen and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Eupen vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.92) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Eupen's last 45 games and Charleroi's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
36%
2.81
25%
3.96
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.37
1.73
Charleroi xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
6%
15.85
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.73 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 8D 26L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (17W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Eupen's home form reads 5W 5D 12L across their last 22 home games, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 22 away games (7W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.32 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Charleroi in 61%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
AS Eupen (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Eupen
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are AS Eupen and Charleroi in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 10W 8D 26L in their last 44 games (0.86 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.91 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Dec 2021, when Charleroi won AS Eupen 0-4 Charleroi.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
AS Eupen
0
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Eupen have won 1, Charleroi have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2024: AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 68%, Charleroi 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for AS Eupen and 59% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 32%; AS Eupen have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Eupen and Charleroi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of AS Eupen's games and 59% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Eupen and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of AS Eupen's matches and 59% of Charleroi's.
Do AS Eupen and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 68% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Eupen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat Charleroi 2-0 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.64 xG and Charleroi 1.73 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.92 / defence 1.48 against Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 36% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 39%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AS Eupen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 64%, Charleroi 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with AS Eupen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.