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Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Anderlecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 5-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Championship Group - 40, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.85 xG and Anderlecht 0.89 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.17 / defence 0.69 against Anderlecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 60% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 46%, Anderlecht 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Anderlecht's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights