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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Anderlecht.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Championship Group - 40 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Anderlecht to Stade Joseph Marien. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Marien: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Anderlecht's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

Union St. Gilloise hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Anderlecht, with 2 draws in between.

The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.

The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Anderlecht 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 46% | Anderlecht 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.85 xG and Anderlecht 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.165 / defence 0.689 | Anderlecht attack 0.975 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.689 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Union St. Gilloise games / 60 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Anderlecht 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Anderlecht 60%.

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