🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 25, as Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 0.82 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.12 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.83 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 26% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 42%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 34%, Union St. Gilloise 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights