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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Standard Liege.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Standard Liege 0-2 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Conference League Group - 40, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.08 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 34% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 37%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 38%, Charleroi 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charleroi's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.30 PPG, Charleroi 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights