Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Conference League Group - 40 sees Charleroi travel to Maurice Dufrasnestadion to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 2W 4D 4L at Maurice Dufrasnestadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Maurice Dufrasnestadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Standard Liege 1.80 PPG, Charleroi 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Standard Liege, 3 for Charleroi and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Standard Liege winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 39% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 38% | Charleroi 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.08 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.819 / defence 0.923 | Charleroi attack 0.935 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Standard Liege games / 60 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 34% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 37%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Charleroi 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 60% | Charleroi 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 40 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 34% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Standard Liege 1.08 / Charleroi 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.819 / def 0.923 | Charleroi attack 0.935 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Charleroi xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Charleroi kick off?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Standard Liege 0 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Standard Liege vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Charleroi part of?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi is a Conference League Group - 40 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 34% chance of winning, Charleroi a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Standard Liege and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Record (9 meetings): Standard Liege 3W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Standard Liege's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
34%
2.94
29%
3.46
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.22
1.14
Charleroi xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.14 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 79 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 26W 25D 28L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 30W 19D 30L from 79 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.30 PPG, Charleroi on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (12W 14D 13L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 12W 9D 18L from 39 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 79 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 26W 25D 28L in their last 79 games (1.30 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 30W 19D 30L in their last 79 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Charleroi away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.28 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Charleroi in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Standard Liege's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Charleroi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 46%, Charleroi 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Standard Liege) and 44% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 36% of games; Charleroi in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 51% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Standard Liege's recent games and 44% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Charleroi tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 49% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Standard Liege.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Standard Liege 0-2 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Conference League Group - 40, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.08 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 34% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 37%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 38%, Charleroi 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.30 PPG, Charleroi 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.