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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Zulte Waregem 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Zulte Waregem 3-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.59 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.09 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.93 / defence 1.29, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 48% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Zulte Waregem 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.57 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights