Charleroi 0-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Genk are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Charleroi register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Genk in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Charleroi 0W, Genk 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Genk — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 58% and Genk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 54% | Genk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.38 xG and Genk 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.992 / defence 1.302 | Genk attack 1.119 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.241. Data: 59 Charleroi games / 60 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 24% | Genk 47%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Genk 2.13. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 80% | Genk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 24% | Genk 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Charleroi 1.38 / Genk 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.992 / def 1.302 | Genk attack 1.119 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Genk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Genk xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Charleroi 0 - 1 Genk.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 29% chance of winning, Genk a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
Record (3 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 2 | Genk 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Genk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.99) and Genk's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.12x) against Charleroi's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
29%
3.44
24%
4.23
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.19
1.81
Genk xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
5%
20.99
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.81 for Genk, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 13D 26L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk's form line: 30W 17D 12L from 59 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (13W 5D 11L).
On the road, Genk have gone 12W 9D 8L from 29 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.98 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 13D 26L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Genk have gone 30W 17D 12L in their last 59 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.52 PPG; Genk away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Charleroi, 66% for Genk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charleroi) and 55% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Charleroi's games and 66% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Charleroi's matches and 55% of Genk's.
Do Charleroi and Genk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Genk in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.38 xG and Genk 1.81 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Genk landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.30 against Genk attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 29% | Draw 24% | Genk 47%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 54%, Genk 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.