St. Truiden 0-1 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium plays host to St. Truiden versus Cercle Brugge in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
St. Truiden have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 4W 3D 3L at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cercle Brugge (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Cercle Brugge have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for St. Truiden, 1.70 for Cercle Brugge — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cercle Brugge half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 50% versus Cercle Brugge 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 48% | Cercle Brugge 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.34 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.739 / defence 0.899 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.931 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.387. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 St. Truiden games / 50 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 41% | Draw 27% | Cercle Brugge 32%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Cercle Brugge 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | Cercle Brugge 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 41% | Draw 27% | Cercle Brugge 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG St. Truiden 1.34 / Cercle Brugge 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.739 / def 0.899 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.931 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cercle Brugge xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
St. Truiden 0 - 1 Cercle Brugge.
Where is St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge part of?
St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 41% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.74) and Cercle Brugge's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cercle Brugge's attack (0.93x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.72
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.50
1.16
Cercle Brugge xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.16 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 21W 11D 18L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 18W 13D 19L from 50 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.34 for Cercle Brugge. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.44 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 21W 11D 18L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 18W 13D 19L in their last 50 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Cercle Brugge away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.33 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.12 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Cercle Brugge been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cercle Brugge in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cercle Brugge won 4-1 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cercle Brugge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Cercle Brugge have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for St. Truiden, 67% for Cercle Brugge — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (St. Truiden) and 54% (Cercle Brugge). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Cercle Brugge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of St. Truiden's games and 67% of Cercle Brugge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of St. Truiden's matches and 54% of Cercle Brugge's.
Do St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cercle Brugge defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat St. Truiden 0-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.34 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.16 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.74 / defence 0.90 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 41% | Draw 27% | Cercle Brugge 32%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cercle Brugge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 48%, Cercle Brugge 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.48 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.