Anderlecht 0-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Genk meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht at Lotto Park this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Anderlecht are significantly better at Lotto Park than their overall form suggests.
Genk have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Genk are 1.70 PPG clear of Anderlecht in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Genk half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 54% versus Genk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 56% | Genk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.26 xG and Genk 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.008 / defence 0.908 | Genk attack 1.354 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.433. Genk's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Anderlecht games / 50 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 28% | Draw 23% | Genk 49%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Genk 2.04. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 50% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 28% | Draw 23% | Genk 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Anderlecht 1.26 / Genk 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.008 / def 0.908 | Genk attack 1.354 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Genk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Genk xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Genk kick off?
Anderlecht vs Genk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Anderlecht 0 - 2 Genk.
Where is Anderlecht vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Genk part of?
Anderlecht vs Genk is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 28% chance of winning, Genk a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Anderlecht and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Genk in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Genk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.01x the league average against Genk's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.35x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
28%
3.64
23%
4.28
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.03
1.76
Genk xG
3.64
28%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
5%
21.18
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.76 for Genk, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Anderlecht come into this having played 55 games, going 26W 14D 15L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.89 PPG from 55 outings (32W 8D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.89 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Anderlecht's home form reads 14W 7D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.54 points per game from 26 outings (12W 4D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Anderlecht are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.15 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Genk in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 26W 14D 15L in their last 55 games (1.67 PPG), while Genk have gone 32W 8D 15L in their last 55 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Genk away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.88 PPG; Genk away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Anderlecht
2
Draws
6
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 2, Genk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Genk 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 58%, Genk 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Anderlecht) and 65% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Anderlecht's games and 62% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Anderlecht's matches and 65% of Genk's.
Do Anderlecht and Genk tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Genk in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Anderlecht 0-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.26 xG and Genk 1.76 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Genk attack 1.35 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 28% | Draw 23% | Genk 49%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 56%, Genk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.67 PPG, Genk 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.