Charleroi 0-5 KV Mechelen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs KV Mechelen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus KV Mechelen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Charleroi (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KV Mechelen have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KV Mechelen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, KV Mechelen have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Charleroi against 1.10 for KV Mechelen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, KV Mechelen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charleroi lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
KV Mechelen — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus KV Mechelen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Charleroi 66% | KV Mechelen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.76 xG and KV Mechelen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.883 / defence 1.094 | KV Mechelen attack 0.856 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.410. Data: 50 Charleroi games / 50 KV Mechelen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 29%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | KV Mechelen 3.45. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 80% | KV Mechelen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs KV Mechelen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Charleroi 1.76 / KV Mechelen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.883 / def 1.094 | KV Mechelen attack 0.856 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.32
KV Mechelen xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs KV Mechelen kick off?
Charleroi vs KV Mechelen kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Charleroi 0 - 5 KV Mechelen.
Where is Charleroi vs KV Mechelen being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs KV Mechelen part of?
Charleroi vs KV Mechelen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 48% chance of winning, KV Mechelen a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Charleroi and KV Mechelen will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs KV Mechelen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KV Mechelen?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | KV Mechelen 0W.
What form are Charleroi and KV Mechelen in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. KV Mechelen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.88x the league average against KV Mechelen's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KV Mechelen's attack (0.86x) against Charleroi's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.28
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.08
1.32
KV Mechelen xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and KV Mechelen expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.32 for KV Mechelen, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charleroi's recent record stands at 23W 11D 22L from 56 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KV Mechelen, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 24L across 56 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for KV Mechelen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Charleroi against 1.32 for KV Mechelen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 11W 6D 10L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KV Mechelen's away record stands at 6W 4D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of KV Mechelen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; KV Mechelen are on 1.55 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KV Mechelen in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
KV Mechelen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and KV Mechelen in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 23W 11D 22L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while KV Mechelen have gone 21W 11D 24L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or KV Mechelen away?
Charleroi's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.44 PPG; KV Mechelen away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
KV Mechelen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KV Mechelen won 5-2 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KV Mechelen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
2
Draws
5
KV Mechelen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KV Mechelen?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, KV Mechelen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and KV Mechelen last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when KV Mechelen 1-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and KV Mechelen?
KV Mechelen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
KV Mechelen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 48%, KV Mechelen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Charleroi and 63% for KV Mechelen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 26% of games; KV Mechelen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / KV Mechelen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play KV Mechelen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Charleroi's recent matches and 59% of KV Mechelen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs KV Mechelen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Charleroi's matches and 63% of KV Mechelen's.
Do Charleroi and KV Mechelen tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, KV Mechelen in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KV Mechelen run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KV Mechelen beat Charleroi 0-5 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.76 xG and KV Mechelen 1.32 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.8 short of their projected output. KV Mechelen outscored their 1.32 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against KV Mechelen attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 29%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual KV Mechelen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 66%, KV Mechelen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KV Mechelen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KV Mechelen win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.