St. Truiden 2-2 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Anderlecht travel to Stadion Stayen to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Stadion Stayen: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Stayen this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.40 PPG versus Anderlecht's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Anderlecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 60% and Anderlecht 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 50% | Anderlecht 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 0.95 xG and Anderlecht 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.745 / defence 1.289 | Anderlecht attack 0.778 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.464. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 St. Truiden games / 10 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 25% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 49%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Anderlecht 2.04. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 80% | Anderlecht 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 25% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG St. Truiden 0.95 / Anderlecht 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.745 / def 1.289 | Anderlecht attack 0.778 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Anderlecht xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kick off?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
St. Truiden 2 - 2 Anderlecht.
Where is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht part of?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 25% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St. Truiden and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
25%
4.07
26%
3.79
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.42
1.47
Anderlecht xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.68
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.0 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.47 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 2D 4L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.40 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.40 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.90 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Anderlecht in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 0.80 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.60 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Anderlecht have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — St. Truiden at 80%, Anderlecht at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (St. Truiden) and 40% (Anderlecht).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of St. Truiden's games and 60% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of St. Truiden's recent games and 40% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Anderlecht tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Anderlecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 11, as St. Truiden and Anderlecht drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 0.95 xG and Anderlecht 1.47 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.74 / defence 1.29 against Anderlecht attack 0.78 / defence 1.03, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 25% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 49%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 50%, Anderlecht 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.40 PPG, Anderlecht 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.