Charleroi 2-0 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Charleroi, 1.70 for Genk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Genk — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 60% and Genk 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 50% | Genk 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.52 xG and Genk 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.825 / defence 1.117 | Genk attack 0.964 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.464. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Charleroi games / 10 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 24% | Genk 39%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Genk 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 40% | Genk 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 24% | Genk 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Charleroi 1.52 / Genk 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.825 / def 1.117 | Genk attack 0.964 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Genk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Genk xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Charleroi 2 - 0 Genk.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 37% chance of winning, Genk a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Genk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Genk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.82) and Genk's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.96x) against Charleroi's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
37%
2.71
24%
4.19
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.10
1.58
Genk xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
8%
13.12
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.58 for Genk, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 3W 5D 2L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk's form line: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Charleroi against 1.70 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Genk have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.10 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Genk in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Genk have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.00 PPG; Genk away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Genk in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Charleroi, 100% for Genk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Charleroi) and 80% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Charleroi have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Charleroi's games and 100% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Charleroi's recent games and 80% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Genk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Genk in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Genk 2-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.52 xG and Genk 1.58 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genk landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Genk attack 0.96 / defence 1.49, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 37% | Draw 24% | Genk 39%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 50%, Genk 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.40 PPG, Genk 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.