Anderlecht 4-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Beerschot VA travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 2W 2D 1L at Lotto Park — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beerschot VA — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA away from home this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Anderlecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 73% versus Beerschot VA 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 54% | Beerschot VA 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 2.49 xG and Beerschot VA 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.335 / defence 1.157 | Beerschot VA attack 0.844 / defence 1.521. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.430. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.521 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Anderlecht games / 11 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 61% | Draw 18% | Beerschot VA 20%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.64 | Draw 5.56 | Beerschot VA 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.88 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 80% | Beerschot VA 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 61% | Draw 18% | Beerschot VA 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 69% | xG Anderlecht 2.49 / Beerschot VA 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.335 / def 1.157 | Beerschot VA attack 0.844 / def 1.521 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Beerschot VA xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Anderlecht 4 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA part of?
Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 61% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Anderlecht and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Beerschot VA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Beerschot VA in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.33x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
61%
1.63
18%
5.44
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.88
1.40
Beerschot VA xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
8%
12.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
2%
59.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.40 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 4W 5D 2L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA's form line: 0W 2D 9L from 11 games, 0.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Anderlecht are the form team by 1.37 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beerschot VA.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 0.64 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 0W 2D 9L in their last 11 (0.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Beerschot VA away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.60 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Anderlecht and Beerschot VA runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Anderlecht won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Anderlecht
0
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Anderlecht 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Beerschot VA?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Anderlecht at 80%, Beerschot VA at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Anderlecht and 80% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Anderlecht's games and 80% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Anderlecht's matches and 80% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Anderlecht and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Beerschot VA 4-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 2.49 xG and Beerschot VA 1.40 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.33 / defence 1.16 against Beerschot VA attack 0.84 / defence 1.52, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 61% | Draw 18% | Beerschot VA 20%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 54%, Beerschot VA 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.18. Form held, and they took the win. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.