St. Truiden 2-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 46%, yet the head-to-head data favours Anderlecht — this St. Truiden vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Anderlecht travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen to take on St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group - 34). The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
St. Truiden's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Anderlecht stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Anderlecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.30 PPG versus Anderlecht's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Anderlecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 0 for St. Truiden.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended St. Truiden 1–2 Anderlecht — a Anderlecht win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Anderlecht have won 7 of 8 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 64% versus Anderlecht 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 59% | Anderlecht 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.73 xG and Anderlecht 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.060 / defence 1.075 | Anderlecht attack 0.973 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Anderlecht's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St. Truiden's projected output up. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 60 games and Anderlecht's last 60.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 31%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.19 | Draw 4.26 | Anderlecht 3.24. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.73 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (St. Truiden's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 50% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 34 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Thursday 23 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG St. Truiden 1.73 / Anderlecht 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.060 / def 1.075 | Anderlecht attack 0.973 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Anderlecht xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kick off?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
St. Truiden 2 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht part of?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Group - 34) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 46% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both St. Truiden and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 60 games and Anderlecht's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.26
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.11
1.38
Anderlecht xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.38 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 69 games, going 28W 15D 26L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.46 PPG from 69 outings (29W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.43 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 17W 8D 9L across their last 34 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 34 away games (12W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.52 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Anderlecht in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
St. Truiden (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 28W 15D 26L in their last 69 games (1.43 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 29W 14D 26L in their last 69 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Anderlecht away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.74 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.24 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won St. Truiden 0-3 Anderlecht.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 1, Anderlecht have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 May 2026: Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 65%, Anderlecht 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (St. Truiden) and 38% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and Anderlecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 38% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of St. Truiden's recent games and 38% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 65% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Anderlecht 2-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Championship Group - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.73 xG and Anderlecht 1.38 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Anderlecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 46% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 31%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 59%, Anderlecht 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.43 PPG, Anderlecht 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.