SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière meet at Freethiel Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
SK Beveren's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 10W 0D 0L at Freethiel Stadion — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
RAAL La Louvière have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. RAAL La Louvière have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RAAL La Louvière away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward SK Beveren. A 1.50 PPG lead over RAAL La Louvière (1.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SK Beveren lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 53% versus RAAL La Louvière 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | RAAL La Louvière 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.31 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.785 / defence 0.980 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.830 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. SK Beveren's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 SK Beveren games / 34 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 41% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 32%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | RAAL La Louvière 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 30% | RAAL La Louvière 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 41% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG SK Beveren 1.31 / RAAL La Louvière 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.785 / def 0.980 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.830 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.14
RAAL La Louvière xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 41% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière?
Record (2 meetings): SK Beveren 0W | Draws 1 | RAAL La Louvière 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.79) and RAAL La Louvière's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RAAL La Louvière's attack (0.83x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.68
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.45
1.14
RAAL La Louvière xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.14 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.53 PPG on a 29W 4D 3L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RAAL La Louvière's form line: 6W 14D 16L from 36 games, 0.89 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RAAL La Louvière.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.88 PPG from 17 outings (16W 1D 0L).
On the road, RAAL La Louvière have gone 3W 6D 8L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.03 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 29W 4D 3L in their last 36 games (2.53 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 6W 14D 16L in their last 36 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.88 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 0.88 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Beveren
1
Draws
1
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 0, RAAL La Louvière have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when SK Beveren 0-0 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 41%, RAAL La Louvière 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SK Beveren) and 65% (RAAL La Louvière). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; RAAL La Louvière in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play RAAL La Louvière?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 65% of RAAL La Louvière's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of SK Beveren's matches and 65% of RAAL La Louvière's.
Do SK Beveren and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.