Lommel United vs SK Beveren – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host SK Beveren at Soevereinstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 6W 1D 3L at Soevereinstadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 2.00 PPG versus SK Beveren's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lommel United, 4 for SK Beveren and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 60% versus SK Beveren 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 57% | SK Beveren 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 2.07 xG and SK Beveren 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.898 / defence 0.826 | SK Beveren attack 0.579 / defence 1.514. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.514 — this is suppressing Lommel United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Lommel United games / 4 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 70% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 11%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | SK Beveren 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 50% | SK Beveren 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs SK Beveren | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 70% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 42% | xG Lommel United 2.07 / SK Beveren 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.898 / def 0.826 | SK Beveren attack 0.579 / def 1.514 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.66
SK Beveren xG
42%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs SK Beveren kick off?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Soevereinstadion.
Where is Lommel United vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs SK Beveren part of?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 70% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lommel United and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
Record (10 meetings): Lommel United 2W | Draws 4 | SK Beveren 4W.
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in?
Lommel United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.90x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
70%
1.42
19%
5.27
11%
9.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.73
0.66
SK Beveren xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
9.32
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
1%
73.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lommel United and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.66 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lommel United come into this having played 37 games, going 19W 8D 10L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 2.54 PPG from 37 outings (30W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Lommel United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lommel United's home form reads 10W 3D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 2.21 points per game from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.14 scored and 0.89 conceded. Lommel United's scoring rate against SK Beveren's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 19W 8D 10L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 30W 4D 3L in their last 37 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.74 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Lommel United or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lommel United's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lommel United
4
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 2, SK Beveren have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 53%, SK Beveren 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Lommel United and 79% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lommel United's games and 63% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Lommel United's matches and 79% of SK Beveren's.
Do Lommel United and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.