Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Zulte Waregem (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.50 for Charleroi, 2.40 for Zulte Waregem — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Zulte Waregem in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Charleroi 3W, Zulte Waregem 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 50% versus Zulte Waregem 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 42% | Zulte Waregem 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.66 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.117 / defence 0.860 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.904 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Data: 34 Charleroi games / 34 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 51% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 25%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Zulte Waregem 4.00. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 51% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Charleroi 1.66 / Zulte Waregem 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.117 / def 0.860 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.904 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Zulte Waregem xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 51% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Charleroi and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
Record (6 meetings): Charleroi 3W | Draws 1 | Zulte Waregem 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.12x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.90x) against Charleroi's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.10
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.74
1.09
Zulte Waregem xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
5%
21.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.09 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 18W 6D 16L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 15W 11D 14L from 40 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Charleroi against 1.40 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 5W 7D 8L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.52 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 6D 16L in their last 40 games (1.50 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Charleroi's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.40 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zulte Waregem go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 55%, Zulte Waregem 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Charleroi) and 60% (Zulte Waregem).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Charleroi's games and 70% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Charleroi's recent games and 60% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.