Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Zulte Waregem (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Charleroi's favour (2.50 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Charleroi 4W, Zulte Waregem 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 50% versus Zulte Waregem 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Zulte Waregem 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.93 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.284 / defence 1.089 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.903 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Charleroi games / 38 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 53% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 25%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Zulte Waregem 4.00. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Zulte Waregem 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 53% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Charleroi 1.93 / Zulte Waregem 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.284 / def 1.089 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.903 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Zulte Waregem xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 53% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Charleroi and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
Record (7 meetings): Charleroi 4W | Draws 1 | Zulte Waregem 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.28x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.90x) against Charleroi's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.51
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.21
1.28
Zulte Waregem xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
4%
27.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.28 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 21W 6D 17L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 16W 11D 17L from 44 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Charleroi against 1.34 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 7D 9L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.43 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 21W 6D 17L in their last 44 games (1.57 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Charleroi's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.41 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
From 7 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Zulte Waregem have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 59%, Zulte Waregem 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Charleroi) and 59% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Charleroi's games and 64% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Charleroi's recent games and 59% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.