OH Leuven 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OH Leuven face St. Truiden.

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Fixture Analysis

OH Leuven welcome St. Truiden to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group - 4). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, OH Leuven stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

OH Leuven at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, St. Truiden have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (OH Leuven) versus 1.60 (St. Truiden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, OH Leuven have won 1, St. Truiden 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended OH Leuven 1–1 St. Truiden — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

OH Leuven in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

St. Truiden in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 58% versus St. Truiden 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 55% | St. Truiden 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OH Leuven surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while St. Truiden have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.72 xG and St. Truiden 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.843 / defence 0.865 | St. Truiden attack 0.850 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. St. Truiden's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OH Leuven's projected output up. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 64 games and St. Truiden's last 64.

Result probabilities: OH Leuven 58% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 19%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 1.73 | Draw 4.22 | St. Truiden 5.35. The model has a clear lean to OH Leuven (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (OH Leuven's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 50% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 60% (last 10 away games).

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