OH Leuven 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Conference League Play-off Group - 4 as OH Leuven welcome St. Truiden to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
OH Leuven at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (OH Leuven) versus 1.60 (St. Truiden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for OH Leuven, 0 for St. Truiden and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 58% versus St. Truiden 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 55% | St. Truiden 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.72 xG and St. Truiden 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.843 / defence 0.865 | St. Truiden attack 0.850 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing OH Leuven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 OH Leuven games / 64 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 58% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 19%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | St. Truiden 5.26. The model has a clear lean to OH Leuven (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OH Leuven 50% | St. Truiden 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 4 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 58% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG OH Leuven 1.72 / St. Truiden 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.843 / def 0.865 | St. Truiden attack 0.850 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.86
St. Truiden xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kick off?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
OH Leuven 1 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden part of?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden is a Conference League Play-off Group - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 58% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OH Leuven and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
Record (4 meetings): OH Leuven 1W | Draws 3 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.22
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.59
0.86
St. Truiden xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
3%
29.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.86 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 21W 18D 28L from 67 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 24L across 67 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: OH Leuven on 1.21 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 12W 9D 12L from 33 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 8W 11D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
OH Leuven are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.19 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 21W 18D 28L in their last 67 games (1.21 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 23W 20D 24L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or St. Truiden away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.36 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 58%, St. Truiden 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (OH Leuven) and 52% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven have failed to score in 27% of games; St. Truiden in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of OH Leuven's games and 54% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of OH Leuven's recent games and 52% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and St. Truiden tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OH Leuven edge out St. Truiden 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat St. Truiden 1-0 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Conference League Play-off Group - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.72 xG and St. Truiden 0.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against St. Truiden attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 58% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 19%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 55%, St. Truiden 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.21 PPG, St. Truiden 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.