St. Truiden 0-2 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and Gent meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gent have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gent have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.70 for Gent. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for St. Truiden, 0 for Gent and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2024, ended 4–1 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Gent — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 48% versus Gent 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | Gent 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.58 xG and Gent 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.972 / defence 0.818 | Gent attack 1.062 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Data: 64 St. Truiden games / 64 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 50% | Draw 25% | Gent 25%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Gent 4.00. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | Gent 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 5 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 50% | Draw 25% | Gent 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG St. Truiden 1.58 / Gent 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.972 / def 0.818 | Gent attack 1.062 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gent xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Gent kick off?
St. Truiden vs Gent kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
St. Truiden 0 - 2 Gent.
Where is St. Truiden vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Gent part of?
St. Truiden vs Gent is a Conference League Play-off Group - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 50% chance of winning, Gent a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both St. Truiden and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
Record (2 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 1 | Gent 0W.
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Gent (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.06x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.97
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.60
1.02
Gent xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
5%
19.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.02 for Gent, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 23W 20D 25L from 68 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 33W 18D 17L across 68 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 15W 9D 10L from 34 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 14W 8D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 2.00 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
Gent
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 23W 20D 25L in their last 68 games (1.31 PPG), while Gent have gone 33W 18D 17L in their last 68 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Gent away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.59 PPG; Gent away: 1.47 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Gent in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, Gent have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 44%, Gent 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St. Truiden) and 53% (Gent).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 50% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St. Truiden's recent games and 53% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Gent tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gent in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat St. Truiden 0-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Conference League Play-off Group - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.58 xG and Gent 1.02 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Gent outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Gent attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 50% | Draw 25% | Gent 25%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Gent win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, Gent 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gent's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gent (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.