OH Leuven 2-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OH Leuven face Gent.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
OH Leuven host Gent at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group - 3). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 19:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, OH Leuven have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, OH Leuven have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Gent — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Gent have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (OH Leuven) versus 1.40 (Gent). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, OH Leuven have won 0, Gent 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2023, ended OH Leuven 0–4 Gent — a Gent win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Gent in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 58% versus Gent 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 54% | Gent 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OH Leuven surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Gent have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.37 xG and Gent 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.840 / defence 0.861 | Gent attack 1.065 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 64 games and Gent's last 64.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 43% | Draw 27% | Gent 30%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.30 | Draw 3.70 | Gent 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OH Leuven as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 40% (last 10 home games) | Gent 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 3 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 43% | Draw 27% | Gent 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG OH Leuven 1.37 / Gent 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.840 / def 0.861 | Gent attack 1.065 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Gent xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OH Leuven vs Gent FAQs
What time does OH Leuven vs Gent kick off?
OH Leuven vs Gent kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Gent?
OH Leuven 2 - 1 Gent.
Where is OH Leuven vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Gent part of?
OH Leuven vs Gent is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Play-off Group - 3) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 43% chance of winning, Gent a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both OH Leuven and Gent will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will OH Leuven vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.84) and Gent's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OH Leuven's last 64 games and Gent's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.70
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.45
1.08
Gent xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OH Leuven vs Gent Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.08 for Gent, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OH Leuven come into this having played 66 games, going 20W 18D 28L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.73 PPG from 66 outings (32W 18D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Gent carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OH Leuven's home form reads 12W 9D 12L across their last 33 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 33 away games (14W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
OH Leuven are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 2.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
Gent
Current Season
OH Leuven (Home) vs Gent (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OH Leuven
Current Season
Gent
Current Season
❓ OH Leuven vs Gent Form FAQs
What form are OH Leuven and Gent in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 20W 18D 28L in their last 66 games (1.18 PPG), while Gent have gone 32W 18D 16L in their last 66 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.36 PPG; Gent away: 1.52 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gent in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Dec 2023, when Gent won Gent 4-0 OH Leuven.
OH Leuven's record when hosting Gent specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OH Leuven
2
Draws
4
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ OH Leuven vs Gent H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Gent?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OH Leuven have won 4, Gent have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Gent last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Gent 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 54%, Gent 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (OH Leuven) and 52% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 30%; OH Leuven have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OH Leuven vs Gent Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OH Leuven and Gent matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 48% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OH Leuven and Gent matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of OH Leuven's recent games and 52% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Gent matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 79% of Gent's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OH Leuven edge out Gent 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Gent 2-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Conference League Play-off Group - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.37 xG and Gent 1.08 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against Gent attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 43% | Draw 27% | Gent 30%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 54%, Gent 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Gent's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with OH Leuven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.