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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat OH Leuven 0-2 at Den Dreef, Conference League Group - 35, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 39% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 34%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 36%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charleroi's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.08 PPG, Charleroi 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights